It’s three!
Kieran Trippier sends the most perfect free kick you’ll ever see arrowing into the top corner and Newcastle lead Manchester City 3-1!
Mrs Reid tells Mr Reid to keep calm…
But I’m dancing round the lounge. Four weeks away and the blog is going to return in triumph. Not just in triumph but with the boys – quickly checks the table – second in the league!
Ah, but the football gods giveth and they also taketh away. Ten minutes later it’s 3-3 and we’re down to sixth. But not a bad start to the season and yes, counselling has been arranged for those TAB members who support West Ham…
Has anything else happened while I’ve been on holiday? Liz Truss has all but secured the keys to 10 Downing Street, inflation has cruised into double figures – with forecasts of much worse to come – and, unsurprisingly, UK consumer confidence has slumped to a record low.
Look further afield and the current drought in China threatens all manner of future problems in the supply chain – as does the continuing dispute with Taiwan, given TSMC’s dominance of the semiconductor industry. And the drought isn’t confined to China: two-thirds of the US is now affected by it.
For the first eight or nine years of the blog I constantly wrote about the ever-increasing pace of technological change. But now – post-pandemic – we’re seeing new levels of change, both ecological, economic and social. Meanwhile the war in Ukraine rumbles on – it’s now six months since the Russian tanks rolled across the border.
So what do the owners and directors of the UK’s SMEs make of it all? On the surface it’s easy to be gloomy. Many small businesses are unquestionably scrapping hiring plans in the face of the economic uncertainty. We’ve just seen the biggest interest rate rise for 27 years and, clearly, it won’t be the last one. Inflation means there’s pressure to pay higher wages, with workers seeing the fastest fall in real pay on record.
Despite all this TAB members – wherever they are in the UK – remain optimistic. But cautiously optimistic, knowing that there’ll be challenges ahead well into next year – and that finding the right people to help grow their businesses is getting increasingly difficult.
From business to politics: by the time of the next blog (September 9th) Liz Truss will be confirmed as the PM. It is impossible to overestimate how much support – and understanding – SMEs will need from the new administration.
What are the early indications from Liz Truss? On the face of it her policies seem favourable towards business. She says she’ll reverse the recent rise in National Insurance, hold an emergency budget and has pledged to scrap the planned increase in corporation tax (it’s due to go up from 19% to 25% in 2023).
She also wants to create ‘low-tax and low-regulation zones across the UK in a bid to ‘create hubs for innovation and enterprise.’
More of those later – but now I want to move from business to politics to… nature.
In 1995 14 wolves were released into the wild in Yellowstone Park: at the time scientists didn’t think the wolves would radically change the ecosystem of the park.
There’d been no wolves in Yellowstone for 70 years. During that time the deer population grew tremendously – severely damaging the local flora. There was no way 14 wolves could eat all the deer – but what they did was force the deer to be more careful about where they ate. To avoid certain parts of the park – and in those places, the vegetation started to revive.
In six years the height of trees increased fivefold. Beavers appeared and began building dams: muskrats, fish and ducks bred in the new ponds. The wolves reduced the population of coyotes, which increased the number of rabbits and mice – which in turn attracted hawks, ferrets and foxes. Bears thrived on the scraps of food left by the wolves.
Surprisingly, the wolves also changed the flow of Yellowstone’s rivers. Channels straightened and stabilised, and erosion decreased – because the influence of the wolves on the deer led to the explosive growth of trees along riverbanks.
Why have I just devoted a large part of the blog to Yellowstone Park? Because I think it’s an exact parallel with what’s happening in business right now. Technological change, environmental change, economic and social change: wolves have – figuratively – been released into SME Park and none of us know what the consequences will be. Making decisions about the future of your business has never been more difficult.
Fortunately, you’re in the right place. You are not a lonely deer wandering down to the riverbank. You’ve the support of your TAB colleagues – and everyone in the TAB family. You have a wealth of knowledge and experience to draw on – that simply isn’t available to the entrepreneur alone in his office at nine at night, running his hands through his hair and wondering what the hell to do.
Best of all you have the regular meetings with your colleagues.
Remember those ‘hubs for innovation and enterprise?’
They’re already here, Liz. We call them TAB monthly meetings…
