Three short months ago, I started the year with ‘Ed Reid is no longer needed,’ my post on Artificial Intelligence (AI).
I’d tested ChatGPT – asked it to write the blog for me. ‘No problem,’ it said, offering me 270 words that wouldn’t have been out of place in plenty of the publications we read.
No, they weren’t written in the style and tone of the blog – but my goodness, they were written quickly. Less than 15 seconds for my 270 words. Scale up to 800 words, tell my new best friend to get cracking, cut and paste, and I could be done for another fortnight. As I wrote at the time, the speed was simultaneously impressive and frightening.
That, I thought, was that. Time to move on to other matters. An economy that was returning to normal. Inflation might finally be under control. Coming to terms with the fact that the Chancellor of the Exchequer hadn’t changed for three months…
But AI would not be denied. ‘The implications of AI programmes like ChatGPT are immense’, I wrote in January. Immense and immediate. Over the last two weeks, it has been everywhere. The pace of change – and our need to keep up with it – has been a constant theme in this blog since day one. But suddenly, AI has taken it to a whole new level. Science fiction – and not necessarily science fiction with a happy ending – is suddenly becoming science fact.
Last week Elon Musk, Steve Wozniak and others from the Future of Life Institute wrote an open letter calling for a six-month halt to AI development. They have concerns about the impact – on all of us – if AI can compete with human-level intelligence. They have very specific concerns about the labour market.
Others take a different view. ‘Let’s not get hysterical’ says Martha Lane Fox on the BBC business pages.
Whatever happens – and I think that nothing will happen – the beyond-viral growth of ChatGPT (and several similar applications) underscores the core message that has run through the blog. The pace of change is constantly accelerating: owners and directors of SMEs simply must keep up.
Meanwhile, Silicon Valley Bank has gone bust: tech start-ups have rushed to find new banks and discovered that the oldest adage of them all – don’t have all your eggs in one basket – still holds good, even in the days of AI.
But by and large, the economic background in the year's first quarter has been good. In fact, it’s been boring – which is very good. Jeremy Hunt delivered his Spring Budget on March 15th: roughly three weeks ago. Kwasi Kwarteng delivered his tax-cutting ‘dash for growth’ Budget on 23rd September. I’ll wager you can remember more about the latter than the former.
And that’s how it should be. SMEs need stability. After Covid and its subsequent hit to the economy, we need certainty to rebuild our businesses. Yes, of course, inflation needs to come down. Yes, of course, we’d all like the wave of strikes and disruptions to end. But there’ll always be something to worry about: for now, I’ll take the relatively calm water we find ourselves in…
Where does all that leave the members of TAB UK? Looking forward to the Easter break; if recent conversations are any guide…
I like Easter. Whatever the weather, it always seems to arrive with a sense of optimism. It’s warmer, everything in the garden is starting to grow, and preferred lies and winter tees have finally given way to ‘proper’ golf.
Welcome back to the long grass, Mr Reid. We’ve been expecting you…
That sense of optimism undoubtedly runs through the members of TAB UK. Over the last three years, they have been tested as they could never have expected. But they’ve come through it, the businesses stronger, the owners and directors wiser – and, I hope, ever more appreciative of the value of those half dozen wise heads they meet every month.
For now, therefore, let me wish you a very happy Easter. The blog will return to its normal Friday slot on April 21st – by which time I’ll have re-read Ian McEwan’s Machines Like Me. The first time around, I thought it implausible. Far-fetched. Unlikely to happen.
Now? Pour me a glass of Shiraz, will you, Adam…
