I’ve now been writing this blog for close to ten years. In all that time I cannot think of a single subject – not Brexit, not the US/China trade dispute, not the election of Donald Trump – that has so dominated the news agenda, and had bigger potential implications for our businesses, than Coronavirus.
I started writing this on Monday morning: the newspaper headlines that day made grim reading…
That was how I started the first post of March 2020. Two years later – almost to the day – you could delete ‘Coronavirus,’ insert ‘Russia’s invasion of Ukraine’ and the same introduction would make perfect sense.
Bluntly, I cannot believe I’m writing this post.
I cannot believe some of the things I am seeing on the news and on social media.
I cannot believe I am sitting in my office at home thinking, ‘Less than 20 miles. That means the tanks are in Leeds.’
I cannot believe I’m looking at a volunteer guarding a bridge – the one who says he’s never fired a gun in his life – and thinking ‘he’s younger than my son.’
As someone running a business – and with a vested interest in many more businesses – it is almost impossible to get my head round the ramifications and possible implications of what is happening in Ukraine.
But it’s my job to try – so here goes.
In less than two weeks Rishi Sunak will present his Spring Statement. He would, no doubt, have celebrated the fact that the UK economy rebounded last year with the fastest rate of growth since World War 2. That there are now nearly 30m people in employment…
‘But, Mr Speaker, we cannot be complacent. Inflation has once again reared its ugly head. As the world recovers from the pandemic there is competition for energy and resources, pushing prices up. Hard-working British people face difficult choices – and I understand those choices, Mr Speaker…’
It’s easy to see how the speech would have played out. But then, on February 24th – eight years after the invasion of Crimea – Putin said ‘go.’
Oil immediately leapt in price. As I started writing (on Monday morning) Brent Crude was hovering around $140 a barrel. By Thursday morning the price was dropping – but I cannot be the only one who thinks £2 for a litre of petrol is all too possible. That inflation you were talking about, Rishi? Last week City AM suggested that the war could push UK inflation to 9.5%.
Clearly the economy is going to be hit. There will be plenty of newspaper headlines about the choice between eating and heating. Rising petrol and energy prices will unquestionably push up prices in the shops.
Although many people still have savings from the pandemic, everyday discretionary spending is almost certain to fall. That won’t help the economic recovery – and it certainly won’t help businesses in the hospitality sector.
But there are wider problems as well. However much you dozed off in Geography, you’ll know that Ukraine was known as ‘the breadbasket of Europe.’ The country supplies the EU with just under 60% of its corn and around 50% of the grain needed to feed livestock. The war has been described as a ‘catastrophe for global food supplies.’
Moody’s has suggested that Russia is likely to default on its debt obligations as the sanctions bite. But Russian banks owe the hardly-secure Italian banks a reputed $50bn. And Deutsche Bank has problems: it is heavily reliant on Russian IT workers.
Try as I might, right now I can’t make sense of all the possible ramifications of the war. I can’t even believe I’m writing the word ‘war.’ And never did a blog post lean more heavily on the phrase ‘at the time of writing.’ I wrote most of this on Monday and revised it on Thursday – but it could still be hopelessly out of date by the time you read it.
…And having read this far, you’re probably wondering why this post is called ‘Together we are Stronger?’
Is it because the West has come together? No. Politicians around the world have agreed to co-operate, and all credit to them for that. But it hasn’t stopped the tanks or the shelling.
Is it because the invasion will cause problems for all our businesses? But we’re in TAB, and we’ll get through it together? No, it isn’t.
I chose the title because I have to believe – and bluntly, I couldn’t watch the news if I didn’t believe this – that there’ll come a time when we are helping the Ukrainian people rebuild their country. You, me, the UK, Europe, the US – when together we are stronger. When Ukraine is rebuilt and restored and everyone plays their part.
There is only one way to finish this week. I know I speak for every single person in the TAB family when I end, very simply, with…
Slava Ukraini!
